TICK-BORNE VIRUS ENCEPHALITIS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: FEATURES OF EPIDEMIC PROCESS IN STEADY MORBIDITY DECREASE PERIOD. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONDITION IN 2016 AND THE FORECAST FOR 2017

Epidemiological situation for tick-borne virus encephalitis (TBVE) in the Russian Federation is analyzed for the last twenty years (1997–2006 and 2007–2016). It is established that the last decade is characterized by decrease of the morbidity indicators in all constituent entities of the country attributed to the groups with high and middle intensity of the epidemic process, except for the Kirov region. Differences in the dynamics of morbidity decrease are revealed in groups of entities with various intensity of epidemic process in European and Asian parts of Russia. It is shown that at current period the epidemic process is the most intensive in the Asian part of nosoarea of TBVE. In short-term prospect the incidence rate is expected to be below average long-term indicators for 2007–2016 or slightly exceed them.