Prospects for measuring cosmic microwave background spectral distortions in the presence of foregrounds

Measurements of cosmic microwave background spectral distortions have profound implications for our understanding of physical processes taking place over a vast window in cosmological history. Foreground contamination is unavoidable in such measurements and detailed signal-foreground separation will be necessary to extract cosmological science. We present MCMC-based spectral distortion detection forecasts in the presence of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds for a range of possible experimental configurations, focusing on the Primordial Inflation Explorer (PIXIE) as a fiducial concept. We consider modifications to the baseline PIXIE mission (operating 12 months in distortion mode), searching for optimal configurations using a Fisher approach. Using only spectral information, we forecast an extended PIXIE mission to detect the expected average non-relativistic and relativistic thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich distortions at high significance (194$\sigma$ and 11$\sigma$, respectively), even in the presence of foregrounds. The $\Lambda$CDM Silk damping $\mu$-type distortion is not detected without additional modifications of the instrument or external data. Galactic synchrotron radiation is the most problematic source of contamination in this respect, an issue that could be mitigated by combining PIXIE data with future ground-based observations at low frequencies ($\nu < 15-30$GHz). Assuming moderate external information on the synchrotron spectrum, we project an upper limit of $|\mu| < 3.6\times 10^{-7}$ (95\% c.l.), slightly more than one order of magnitude above the fiducial $\Lambda$CDM signal from the damping of small-scale primordial fluctuations, but a factor of $\simeq 250$ improvement over the current upper limit from COBE/FIRAS. This limit could be further reduced to $|\mu| < 9.4\times 10^{-8}$ (95\% c.l.) with more optimistic assumptions about low-frequency information. (Abridged)