Estrutura produtiva e indicadores de encadeamento na economia brasileira entre 2010 e 2014: uma análise multissetorial baseada no modelo insumo-produto

The objective of this study is to analyze the Brazilian productive structure in the years 2010 and 2014 and to evaluate the importance of the economic activities using the input-output instruments. Hirschman-Rasmussen's sectoral linkage indicators (backward linkage/power of dispersion and forward linkage/power of sensitivity) in the input-output model. These indicators were calculated for production, employment and value added, and their value, ordering and composition were analyzed. The input-output matrix for 2010 published by the IBGE is used and the MIP 2014 is estimated based on the methodology proposed by Grij and Berni (2006). A level of disaggregation of activities with 19 sectors is proposed. The production and value-added linkages show a marked importance of industrial activities, with the four groups Agricultural Commodities, Industrial Commodities, Traditional Industry and Innovative Industry being key activities. In addition, two service activities are included in this group: Transportation, storage and mail and Information and communication. For employment indicators, besides the importance of industrial activities, agriculture and services are highlighted. From the analysis performed in this study, it is very similar the productive structure in the Brazilian economy between 2010 and 2014, analyzed on the prism proposed in this study. There was, however, a timid change in the schematization of activities for VBP and VA, remaining similar in employment. In general, the indicators of production and value added chains show a marked importance of industrial activities. For employment indicators, besides the importance of industrial activities, agriculture and services are highlighted. The analysis of linkage indicators together with their decomposition allow the identification not only their importance order, but also their interaction of the sectors with the other sectors of the economy.