Prognostic model for high-tumor-burden follicular lymphoma integrating baseline and end-induction PET: a LYSA/FIL study

Both total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV), computed on baseline positron emission tomography (PET), and end of induction (EOI) PET are imaging biomarkers showing promise for early risk stratification in patients with high-tumor-burden follicular lymphoma. A model was built incorporating these 2 factors in 159 patients from three prospective trials: 2 Lymphoma Study Association (LYSA) studies and 1 Fondazione Italiana Linfomi (FIL) trial. Median follow up was 64 months. High TMTV (>510 cm³) and positive EOI PET were independent, significant risk factors for progression. Their combination stratified the population into 3 risk groups: patients with no risk factors (n = 102; 64%) had a 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) of 67% vs 33% (hazard ratio [HR], 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-4.9) for patients with 1 risk factor (n = 44; 27%) and only 23% (HR, 4.6; 95% CI, 2.3-9.2) for patients with both risk factors (n = 13; 8%). 2-year PFS was respectively 90% vs 61% (HR, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.2-10.4) and 46% (HR, 8.1; 95%CI, 3.1-21.3). This model enhances the prognostic value of PET staging and response assessment, identifying a subset of patients with a very high risk of progression and early treatment failure at 2 years.