Assessing fossil fuel CO ₂ emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2 ) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO 2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO 2 by measuring radiocarbon ( 14 C) in CO 2 , an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014-15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO 2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO 2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board's reported ffCO 2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California's reported ffCO 2 emissions in 2014-15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO 2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions.