Expected changes in the length of Anopheles maculipennis (Diptera: Culicidae) larva season and the possibility of the re-emergence of malaria in Central and Eastern Europe and the North Balkan region

Anopheles maculipennis is one of the potential vectors of Plasmodium vivax caused malaria in Europe. Although potential malaria vectors are present in the continent, malaria was eradicated in historical times and recently absent in Central and East Europe and the North Balkan. Climate change may trigger the re-emergence of malaria in Europe positively affecting the seasonal patterns of the potential Anopheline vectors. The increasing length of the larva season of mosquito vectors is one of the risk factors of the re-emerging of malaria. The monthly relative abundance values of the larvae of Anopheles maculipennis were modeled for the reference period 1961-1990 and the periods 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 based on the REMO climate model for Central and East Europe and the North Balkan region. Strong, significant correlation (r 2 =0.94, p<0.0001) was found between the monthly relative abundances of larvae and monthly mean air temperature values in Hungary between March and November. The threshold of the larval activity of Anopheles maculipennis was found to be about 4 C. Comparing the modeled relative abundances for 1961-1990, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070, April and October months showed the most notable changes. The model predicts that in Southeast Hungary, East Croatia, North Serbia, South Romania, and North Bulgaria, the main season will increase by +1 to +2 months to the period of 2041-2070 comparing to the reference period. The model also indicates that the complete main Anopheles maculipennis larva season of the mosquito will increase by two months in Southeast Hungary and at least 1 month in the other parts of the south Pannonian Ecoregion, in the North Balkan region including South Romania and North Bulgaria for 2041-2070.