Adaptation to Long-Term Rainfall Variability for Robusta Coffee Cultivation in Brazilian Southeast

Coffee is one of the world most traded agricultural commodities. Currently, a lot of attention has been on Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner) because it seems to evidence a greater tolerance to extreme climatic events than Arabica coffee (C. arabica L.). Despite this, only a few works have been developed aimed at discriminating the climatic vulnerability in regions which prioritize robust coffee production. The aim of this work was to analyze historical climatic variables in space and time for the characterization of climatic vulnerability of micro-regions, in search of mitigation and adaptation, which might support the improvement of production systems of C. canephora coffee trees. The case study was carried out for one of the largest production regions of Robusta coffee of the world, in Brazil, geographically located between the 39°38' and 41°50' West longitude meridians and the 17°52' and 21°19' South latitude parallels. The vulnerability was characterized by the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and rainfall seasonal pattern (based on 30 years of historical data), elements of climatic water balance, elevation and area planted with Robusta coffee. The choice of mitigation and adaptation were based on widely validated criteria. Overall, the results show that the vulnerability of Robusta coffee is related to low index of rainfall, the rainfall seasonability and the water deficiency. In the studied region, there is approximately 42% of some type of water vulnerability during the year, with a severe to medium scale; this vulnerability is very pronounced in regions farther away from the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, since for a year approximately 92% of them are water deficient. In addition, the data show that this distance from the ocean implies a reduction of 75% in the phases of water surplus not only. The strategies of greater potential for adaptation and mitigation are related to the planting of improved genotypes, utilization of polycultures systems, increasing plant density, the implementation of irrigation systems and the management of spontaneous plants.