Barriers to and consequences of a solar-based energy transition in Greece

In Greece, the renewable energy potential and a low-quality building stock constitute the background of a possible low-carbon energy transition. This transition, however, faces significant uncertainties, ranging from long-term effects of the ongoing economic recession and technological lock-ins, to the stability of the regulatory framework and issues of public acceptance. Such uncertainties may eventually give rise to significant barriers to, as well as severe economic and social consequences of, the envisaged transition. Here, in a structured approach to eliciting the knowledge embedded in stakeholders, we identify such risks and explore their dynamics and role in a sustainable transition to a power system that is based on large-scale solar projects and prosuming in the residential sector. We then employ a modelling ensemble, consisting of a macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and a business strategy assessment model, in order to quantify and evaluate the extent of the identified risks’ impact.