Anthropogenic drivers of 2013–2017 trends in summer surface ozone in China

Observations of surface ozone available from ∼1,000 sites across China for the past 5 years (2013-2017) show severe summertime pollution and regionally variable trends. We resolve the effect of meteorological variability on the ozone trends by using a multiple linear regression model. The residual of this regression shows increasing ozone trends of 1-3 ppbv a^-1 in megacity clusters of eastern China that we attribute to changes in anthropogenic emissions. By contrast, ozone decreased in some areas of southern China. Anthropogenic NO_x emissions in China are estimated to have decreased by 21% during 2013-2017, whereas volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions changed little. Decreasing NO_x would increase ozone under the VOC-limited conditions thought to prevail in urban China while decreasing ozone under rural NO_x-limited conditions. However, simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemical Transport Model (GEOS-Chem) indicate that a more important factor for ozone trends in the North China Plain is the ∼40% decrease of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) over the 2013-2017 period, slowing down the aerosol sink of hydroperoxy (HO₂) radicals and thus stimulating ozone production.