Pathways for the transition of the Polish power sector and associated risks

In Poland, coal has been a key driver of energy security and, despite its declining role, still accounts for most of the country’s power generation mix. Transition potential for the fossil fuel-based power sector can be reflected in a heated debate between a coal-oriented, evolutionary process of slowly reducing emissions; and a more ambitious renewable energy-driven pathway. Both pathways feature barriers; some are evident in standard economic analyses, while others are not. Here, we use a bottom-up energy model to identify the optimal energy mix for the two pathways, and a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium macroeconomic model to assess their socioeconomic implications. We then employ fuzzy cognitive maps to explore which agenda appears to be favoured by stakeholders, and identify omitted risk channels associated with both pathways. Finally, based on these insights, we reiterate the modelling analyses and assess the socioeconomic implications of some of the identified risk channels.