Karst Spring Discharge Evaluation Using a Rainfall-Input Model: The Case Study of Capodacqua di Spigno Spring (Central Italy)

The increasing occurrence of widespread drought phenomena is a global environmental emergency, especially for the effects of ongoing climate change on groundwater availability. Dry years and extreme temperatures are common drivers of current climate impacts all over the world, including, for example, freshwater supply for drinking and agriculture purposes, ecosystems, forestry, health, etc.. In this frame, to ensure temporal water availability in water-stressed areas, a sustainable groundwater management is an increasing challenge. Most of groundwater in the South-East Latium Region, Central Italy, as in the whole Apennine Mountains chain, is stored in karst aquifers. In this area important water resources are present, but even here in the last decades they are affected by groundwater depletion as a consequence of occurring drought events, the upward trend in the globally average temperature and the increasing of anthropogenic activities. Due to the lack of flow rates data of springs in many areas of Italy, the spring response modeling could be a useful tool for supporting a proper water resource management. Several research studies proposed methods based on relationships between spring discharges and rainfall data. The goal of this paper is to propose a model, based on rainfall-discharges cross correlations, in order to assess the spring flow rate patterns of Capodacqua di Spigno Spring, which is the main one in the study area. The results obtained using the developed model has been compared to an existing method that uses the SPI index for the estimation of the minimum annual spring discharge.