Predicting the impacts of climate change on <i>Papio</i> baboon biogeography: Are widespread, generalist primates ‘safe’?

Abstract Aims To explore whether wide‐ranging, generalist primates like baboons can be presumed ‘resilient’ in the face of climate change. We identify environmental variables influencing baboons’ current distributions and predict their future potential distributions under different climate change scenarios. Location Africa and Arabia. Taxon Baboons, Papio spp. Methods We used localities for olive, yellow, Guinea, hamadryas, chacma and Kinda baboons together with high‐resolution data on bioclimatic variables, altitude and vegetation to construct species distribution models (SDMs). These SDMs were run under current and future conditions, with future models based on three General Circulation Models (MIROC‐ESM, CCSM4 and HadGEM2‐ES) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) for 2050 and 2070 to explore a range of different possible futures. Results All SDMs produced AUC values &gt;0.916 suggesting excellent overall performance. Altitude was the most important variable influencing Guinea baboon distributions (contributing 41.6%), temperature seasonality for olive and yellow baboons (47.5% and 35.4% respectively), precipitation of the driest month for hamadryas baboons (24.4%), annual mean precipitation for the Kinda baboon (45.1%) and mean temperature of the driest quarter for chacma baboons (41.4%). Chacma and Kinda baboons are predicted to suffer substantial habitat loss, and Guinea baboons may do the same if conditions aridify as climates warm. In contrast, all models for the olive and hamadryas baboons predicted an increase in suitable habitat and only smaller changes were predicted for the yellow baboon. Main Conclusions Two or three of six baboon taxa are at risk of significant habitat loss as climates warm despite their apparent ecological flexibility. The chacma and Kinda baboons (both IUCN listed as Least Concern) will be worst affected, followed by the Guinea baboon (Near Threatened) if warming brings aridification. We recommend more focus on biogeographical tools as a means of exploring vulnerabilities in seemingly resilient species.