Global trends in ultraprocessed food and drink product sales and their association with adult body mass index trajectories

This study evaluated global trends in ultraprocessed food and drink (UPFD) volume sales/capita and associations with adult body mass index (BMI) trajectories. Total food/drink volume sales/capita from Euromonitor for 80 countries (2002-2016) were matched to mean adult BMI from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (2002-2014). Products were classified as UPFD/non-UPFD according to the NOVA classification system. Mixed models for repeated measures were used to analyse associations between UPFD volume sales/capita and adult BMI trajectories, controlling for confounding factors. The increase in UPF volume sales was highest for South and Southeast Asia (67.3%) and North Africa and the Middle East (57.6%), while for UPD, the increase was highest for South and Southeast Asia (120.0%) and Africa (70.7%). In 2016, baked goods were the biggest contributor to UPF volume sales (13.1%-44.5%), while carbonated drinks were the biggest contributor to UPD volume sales (40.2%-86.0%). For every standard deviation increase (51 kg/capita, 2002) in UPD volume sales, mean BMI increased by 0.195 kg/m² for men (P < .001) and 0.072 kg/m² for women (P = .003). For every standard deviation (40 kg/capita, 2002) increase in UPF volume sales, mean BMI increased by 0.316 kg/m² for men (P < .001), while the association was not significant for women. Increases in UPFD volume sales/capita were positively associated with population-level BMI trajectories.