Prospects for Localization of Gravitational Wave Transients by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo Observatories

We present a possible observing scenario for the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational wave detectors over the next decade, with the intention of providing information to the astronomy community to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We determine the expected sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals, and study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source. For concreteness, we focus primarily on gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary neutron star (BNS) systems, as the source considered likely to be the most common for detection and also promising for multimessenger astronomy. We find that confident detections will likely require at least 2 detectors operating with BNS sensitive ranges of at least 100 Mpc, while ranges approaching 200 Mpc should give at least ~1 BNS detection per year even under pessimistic predictions of signal rates. The ability to localize the source of the detected signals depends on the geographical distribution of the detectors and their relative sensitivity, and can be as large as thousands of square degrees with only 2 sensitive detectors operating. Determining the sky position of a significant fraction of detected signals to areas of 5 sq deg to 20 sq deg will require at least 3 detectors of sensitivity within a factor of ~2 of each other and with a broad frequency bandwidth. Should one of the LIGO detectors be relocated in India as expected, many gravitational-wave signals will be localized to a few square degrees by gravitational-wave observations alone.