Monte Carlo simulations of black hole mergers in AGN discs: Low χeff mergers and predictions for LIGO

ABSTRACT Accretion discs around supermassive black holes are promising sites for stellar mass black hole mergers detectable with LIGO. Here we present the results of Monte Carlo simulations of black hole mergers within 1-d AGN disc models. For the spin distribution in the disc bulk, key findings are: (1) The distribution of χeff is naturally centred around $\tilde{\chi }_{\rm eff} \approx 0.0$, (2) the width of the χeff distribution is narrow for low natal spins. For the mass distribution in the disc bulk, key findings are: (3) mass ratios $\tilde{q} \sim 0.5\!-\!0.7$, (4) the maximum merger mass in the bulk is $\sim 100\!-\!200\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, (5) $\sim 1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of bulk mergers involve BH $\gt 50\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ with (6) $\simeq 80{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of bulk mergers are pairs of first generation BH. Additionally, mergers at a migration trap grow an IMBH with typical merger mass ratios $\tilde{q}\sim 0.1$. Ongoing LIGO non-detections of black holes $\gt 10^{2}\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ puts strong limits on the presence of migration traps in AGN discs (and therefore AGN disc density and structure) as well as median AGN disc lifetime. The highest merger rate occurs for this channel if AGN discs are relatively short-lived (≤1 Myr) so multiple AGN episodes can happen per Galactic nucleus in a Hubble time.