Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World

Introduction Part I. Perspective and Process 1. Learning In and About Complex Systems 2. System Dynamics In Action 3. The Modeling Process 4. Structure and Behavior of Dynamic Systems Part II. Tools for Systems Thinking 5. Causal Loop Diagrams 6. Stocks and Flows 7. Dynamics of Stocks and Flows 8. Closing the Loop: Dynamics of Simple Structures Part III. The Dynamics of Growth 9. S-Shaped Growth: Epidemics, Innovation Diffusion, and the Growth of New Products 10. Path Dependence and Positive Feedback Part IV. Tools for Modeling Dynamic Systems 11. Delays 12. Coflows and Aging Chains 13. Modeling Decision Making 14. Forming Non-linear Relationships Part V. Instability and Oscillation 15. Modeling Human Behavior: Bounded Rationality or Rational Expectations? 16. Forecasts and Fudge Factors: Modeling Expectation Formation 17. Supply Chains and the Origin of Oscillations 18. Managing Supply Chains in Manufacturing 19. The Labor Supply Chain and the Origin of Business Cycles 20. The Invisible Hand Sometimes Shakes: Commodity Cycles Part VI. Validation and Model Testing 21. Truth and Beauty Part VII. Commencement 22. Challenges for the Future Appendix A: Numerical Integration Appendix B: Noise References Index