Conservation implications of sea turtle nesting trends: elusive recovery of a globally important loggerhead population

Abstract Understanding population status and trends is important for developing and evaluating management and conservation actions for threatened species. Monitoring population status of marine organisms is especially challenging. Because sea turtles come ashore to lay their eggs and nests are easily counted, these counts are commonly used as an index of abundance and population trends. Nest counts do not provide a direct index of adult female population abundance because females typically lay more than one nest per year and most do not reproduce every year. This study attempts for the first time to investigate the likelihood that observed fluctuations of nest counts represent inter‐annual changes of the adult female population by accounting for uncertainty in reproductive rate parameters. We analyzed 30 yr of reproductive data from the largest nesting loggerhead sea turtle population worldwide, breeding in Florida ( USA ), and for the three Recovery Units and seven Management Units therein. Nest counts followed a general non‐monotonic trend with wide fluctuations that corresponded to decreasing and increasing trends during short intervals. When we accounted for uncertainty in both clutch frequency and remigration interval, there was no evidence for an increasing or a declining trend in the breeding female population across the entire period. Despite extensive conservation efforts and protections for loggerheads in Florida and the wider USA , we did not find evidence of a strong population recovery. We recommend maintaining a high level of protection, addressing persistent anthropogenic threats, continued collection of rigorous nest‐count data, and monitoring reproductive parameters to better link nest counts to adult female population abundance. Our results demonstrate the need for caution in using nest counts as a direct proxy for adult female population status, as it may lead to unsupported conclusions potentially detrimental to conservation. Therefore, we recommend to always translating nest trends to at least adult female trends, including uncertainty in reproductive parameters. Our approach can be exported to other populations, even where reproductive parameters are not available. Applying high parameter uncertainty obtained from other populations can help identifying unequivocal population changes; that is, nest trends unlikely justified by uncertainty and poor knowledge of reproductive parameters.