Early evaluation of the Wuhan City travel restrictions in response to the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak

Abstract An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was first reported in China in December 2019 and has spread to other countries. On January 23rd 2020 China shut down transit in and out of Wuhan city, a major transport hub and conurbation of 11 million inhabitants, to contain the outbreak. By combining epidemiological and human mobility data we find that the travel ban slowed the dispersal of 2019-nCoV from Wuhan to other cities in China by 2.91 days (95% CI: 2.54-3.29). This delay provided extra time to establish and reinforce other control measures that are essential to halt the epidemic. The ongoing diffusion of 2019-nCoV provides an opportunity to examine how travel restrictions impede the spatial dispersal of an emerging infectious disease. One Sentence Summary The Wuhan city travel shutdown delayed the dispersal of 2019-nCoV infection to other cities in China