Long-term changes in winter abundance of the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus in Poland and the climate change – Are current monitoring schemes still reliable for cryophilic bat species?

Warmer winters may lead to changes in the hibernation behaviour of bats, such as the barbastelle Barbastella barbastellus, which prefers to hibernate at low temperatures. The species is also known for its large annual fluctuations in the number of wintering individuals, so inference about population trends should be based on long-term data. Prior to 2005, analyses indicated stable or even increasing barbastelle population in Poland. We analysed the results of 13 winter bat counts (2005-2017) of the species from 15 of the largest hibernacula, and additional site of 47 small bunkers, in Poland. The total number of wintering individuals remained stable during the study period, because the barbastelle is not a long-distance migrant, this likely reflects the national population trend. On the basis of mean winter air temperatures we divided the country into four thermal regions. Analyses of barbastelle abundance in hibernacula in the four regions revealed a 4.8% annual mean increase in numbers in the coldest region, where mean winter temperatures were below -2°C, annual mean declines of 3.3% and 3.1% in two warmer regions of western Poland, but no trend in the region of intermediate mean winter temperatures of between -1°C and -2°C. Overall, there was a significant, but weak, negative correlation between the abundance of hibernating individuals and the mean winter temperature. On the other hand, the number of individuals hibernating in small bunkers increased, even though the site was located in one of the warm regions. The results indicate a warming climate will likely reduce the use of large, well-insulated winter roosts by species that prefer colder conditions-and that this is already happening. For forest-dwelling bats, such as the barbastelle, for which monitoring schemes are primarily based on winter surveys of large hibernacula, estimations of population trends may consequently become less reliable.