Pragmatic method for assessing the security of supply in future smart distribution networks

Future distribution networks will be able to provide security of supply through a combination of conventional and smart solutions. This has the potential to require complex and time-consuming assessments using cost-benefit analysis and probabilistic, risk-based methods. The key goal of this project is to create a method for evaluating the security of supply from a combination of conventional and smart solutions which is rigorous enough to provide robust answers, but simple enough that it can be used routinely by planning engineers without in-depth knowledge of risk, statistics, probability, or reliability theory. This will be accomplished through an iterative, data-driven approach and validated via established risk analysis methods. This study presents underpinning analysis for the development of that method, including in-depth risk studies and sensitivity analysis of real distribution networks.