Geological Equiprobable Multi-Models for Resources Assessment. Carson, Bonnition and Salar Basin, NL, Canada

Summary The underexplored Carson Basin appears prospective for oil and gas, after new regional seismic data uncovered plays and leads that are tested using data-calibrated, equiprobable alternative models. The objective was to provide petroleum resource estimates through data interpretation, and 3D basin modelling. Modeling was setup in order to account for alternative realistic (geologically possible) models. Stratigraphic and petroleum system models were constructed and calibrated to well and seismic data to account for less constrained parameters such as: 1) the geodynamic evolution of the basin (drowning timing). 2) the lithological content away from well constrain. 3) the carbonate factory production efficiency or 4) the source rock deposition and preservation potential. Some scenarios were discarded for not honoring well data, interpreted seismic feature and HC occurrence forecasts. Ultimately the resource assessment was accounting for 11 fully calibrated geologically realistic end-member models. The HC volume estimates were derived from the individual results of each outcome attached to a given alternative scenario with different HC charge. resources in place (unrisked volumes) are estimated to 4.0 Bboe (P50). The Probability of Geological Success is estimated 11% characterizing a medium to high risk exploration area.