Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data

We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata to study firm recruiting intensity across establishments and over time. We show that large heterogeneity in vacancy-filling rates is fully accounted for by differences in gross hiring rates. We develop a theory consistent with these facts and, guided by it, construct a firm-based measure of Aggregate Recruiting Intensity (ARI). ARI is strongly procyclical, driven mainly by declines in recruiting efforts in slack labor markets. We also propose a simple proxy ARI index using publicly available macro data. ARI fluctuations explain about 40 percent of aggregate match-efficiency volatility from 2002 to 2019. (JEL D22, E32, J23, J41, J63, M51)