Navigation safety control system development through navigator action prediction by data mining means

Taking into account current trends in the development of ergatic maritime transport systems, the factors of the navigator’s influence on vessel control processes were determined. Within the framework of the research hypothesis, to improve navigation safety, it is necessary to apply predictive data mining models and automated vessel control. The paper proposes a diagram of the ergatic vessel control system and a model for identifying the influence of the navigator “human factor” during navigation. Within the framework of the model based on the principles of navigator decision trees, prediction by data mining means is applied, taking into account the identifiers of the occurrence of a critical situation. Based on the prediction results, a method for optimal vessel control in critical situations was developed, which is triggered at the nodes of the navigator decision tree, which reduces the likelihood of a critical impact on vessel control. The proposed approaches were tested in the research laboratory “Development of decision support systems, ergatic and automated vessel control systems”. The use of the Navi Trainer 5,000 navigation simulator (Wärtsilä Corporation, Finland) and simulation of the navigation safety control system for critical situations have confirmed its effectiveness. As a result of testing, it was determined that the activation of the system allowed reducing the likelihood of critical situations by 18–54 %. In 11 % of cases, the system switched the vessel control processes to automatic mode and, as a result, reduced the risk of emergencies. The use of automated data mining tools made it possible to neutralize the negative influence of the “human factor” of the navigator and to reduce the average maneuvering time during vessel navigation to 23 %