Evaluation of coupling coordination degree and convergence behaviour of local development: A spatiotemporal analysis of all Polish municipalities over the period 2003–2019

This paper examines local development processes in the Polish municipalities between 2003 and 2019. In order to take into account the concept of sustainability, local development is represented by six dimensions: economy, demography, housing, society, infrastructure, and environment. First, using an index system and entropy weight method, the local development index (LDI) is calculated. Second, a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model is applied to study whether the processes of local development dimensions change in harmony. Thirdly, employing a convergence analysis, the studied municipalities are grouped into homogeneous clusters regarding LDI and CCD. Finally, the quadrant method and the ordered logit model are used to indicate directions for improvement in LDI and CCD. The research indicates that Polish local governments exhibit significant disparities in terms of LDI, whereby infrastructure and environment dimensions are the main obstacles to growth for the surveyed municipalities. Moreover, the CCD model shows that the vast majority of Polish municipalities are characterised by seriously or slightly unbalanced development, which also implies the conclusion that development processes in Polish municipalities cannot be called sustainable. Furthermore, club convergence analysis estimates inform that there are seven clubs in Poland in terms of LDI and five clubs in CCD. In addition, quadrant analysis reveals that, in general, urban municipalities belong simultaneously to the convergence clubs with high LDI and CCD. On the other hand, rural municipalities tend to be present in clubs with low LDI; therefore, they should take urgent pro-development measures. The latter is indicated through the identified main obstacles to local development as well as in the final stage of the empirical study through the estimation of ordered logit models.