BLACK SWAN GLOBAL MARKET: ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 DEATH RATE ON THE VOLATILITY OF EUROPEAN FOOTBALL CLUB STOCK PRICES (CASE STUDY OF JUVENTUS F.C., MANCHESTER UNITED, AJAX AMSTERDAM AND BORUSSIA DORTMUND)

Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic that hit the world also directly affected financial markets and global stock markets; this condition in economic terminology is known as the Black Swann Global Market Effect. Black Swan Global Market Effect is also experienced by sports industries in the financial industry, the football industry. The purpose of this paper is to see whether there is an influence between the Covid-19 pandemic conditions on the share value of several major European football clubs, namely Ajax Amsterdam, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus F.C., and Manchester United, as a result of the Black Swan Global Market Effect. The data used in this paper is time-series data from March 2020 to August 2020. Meanwhile, to answer the black swan effect phenomenon, the Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (TGARCH) method is used. The results showed that stocks that were the object of research (Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, and Machester United) showed a large response to bad News (an increase in deaths due to covid-19). Abstrak:Pandemic covid-19 yang mengantam dunia juga secara langsung mempengaruhi pasar keuangan serta pasar saham global, kondisi ini dalam terminology ekonomi dikenal sebagai Black Swann Global Markert Effect. Black Swan Global Market Effect hal ini juga dialami industry-industri olahraga yang berada dalam industry keuangan tersebut salah satunya industry sepakbola.Tujuan penulisan ini adalah untuk melihat apakah terdapat pengaruh antara kondisi pandemic covid-19 terhadap nilai saham beberapa klub sepakbola besar eropa yaitu Ajax Amsterdam, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus FC, dan Manchester United sebagai akibat dari Black Swan Global Market Effect.Data yang digunakan dalam penulisan ini adalah data time series dari bulan maret 2020 hingga agustus 2020. Sementara untuk menjawab fenomoena black swan effect ini digunakan metode Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedacity (TGARCH). Hasil Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, saham-saham yang menjadi objek penelitian (Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, dan Machester United) menunjukan respons yang besar terhadap bad news (peningkatan jumlah kematian akibat covid-19). Black Swan Global Market, Pandemi Covid-19, TGARCH Models