Are multimodal travellers going to abandon sustainable travel for L3 automated vehicles?

Reducing car dependency supports the creation of a more sustainable transport system. However, automated vehicles (AVs) are predicted to increase the attractiveness of car travel and decrease the use of public transport and active travel. This current study explored how travellers’ intention to use AVs and their current travel behaviour influence their expectations of how they will use public transport and active travel, once conditionally automated (SAE L3) vehicles (L3 AVs) are available. Survey data (collected during the EU H2020 L3Pilot project) from among current car users from eight European countries (n = 9118) was used. Respondents were asked about their current travel mode usage, intention to use L3 AVs, and expected changes in the use of public transport and active travel once L3 AVs are available. The respondents were divided into nine user segments based on their level of intention to use L3 AVs and multimodality. Most respondents did not foresee changes in their use of public transport (62%) or active travel (67%). A higher intention to use L3 AVs increased the probability of a traveller expecting to decrease their use of public transport and, to a lesser extent, active travel. Multimodal travellers used public transport and active travel regularly and were also more likely to see a change, either up or down, in their use of public transport and active travel. The results suggest that L3 AVs may pose a challenge to the sustainability by encouraging current users of public transport and active travel to switch to personal AVs.