Assessment of spatio-temporal direction of impervious surface area surface temperature in Pretoria, South Africa

Over the years, rapid urban growth has led to the conversion of natural lands into large man-made landscapes due to enhanced political and economic growth. This study assessed the spatio-temporal change characteristics of impervious surface area (ISA) expansion using its surface temperature (LST) at selected administrative subplace units (i.e., local region scale). ISA was estimated for 1995, 2005 and 2015 from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) and TIRS (Thermal Infrared Sensor) images using a Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The spatio-temporal trends of ISA were assessed using an optimal analytical scale to aggregate ISA LST coupled with weighted standard deviational ellipse (SDE) method. The ISA was quantified with high predictive accuracy (i.e., AUROC = 0.8572 for 1995, AUROC = 0.8709 for 2005, AUROC = 0.8949 for 2015) using RF classifier. More than 70% of the selected administrative subplaces in Pretoria experienced an increase in growth rate (415.59%) between 1995 and 2015. LST computations from the Landsat TIRS bands yielded good results (RMSE = ∼1.44OC, 1.40OC, ∼0.86OC) for 1995, 2005 and 2015 respectively. Based on the hexagon polygon grid (90x90), the aggregated ISA surface temperature weighted SDE analysis results indicated ISA expansion in different directions at the selected administrative subplace units. Our findings can represent useful information for policymakers in evaluating urban development trends in Pretoria, City of Tshwane (COT).