Little hope for the polyploid endemic Pyrenean Larkspur ( <i>Delphinium montanum</i> ): Evidences from population genomics and Ecological Niche Modeling

Species endemic to restricted geographical ranges represent a particular conservation issue, be it for their heritage interest. In a context of global change, this is particularly the case for plants which belong to high-mountain ecosystems and, because of their ecological requirements, are doomed to survive or disappear on their "sky islands". The Pyrenean Larkspur (<i>Delphinium montanum</i>, Ranunculaceae) is endemic to the Eastern part of the Pyrenees (France and Spain). It is now only observable at a dozen of localities and some populations show signs of decline, such as a recurrent lack of flowering. Implementing population genomics approach (e.g., RAD-seq like) is particularly useful to understand genomic patterns of diversity and differentiation in order to provide recommendations in term of conservation. However, it remains challenging for species such as <i>D</i>. <i>montanum</i> that are autotetraploid with a large genome size (1C-value >10 pg) as most methods currently available were developed for diploid species. A Bayesian framework able to call genotypes with uncertainty allowed us to assess genetic diversity and population structure in this system. Our results show evidence for inbreeding (mean <i>G</i> _IS = 0.361) within all the populations and substantial population structure (mean <i>G</i> _ST = 0.403) at the metapopulation level. In addition to a lack of connectivity between populations, spatial projections of Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) analyses under different climatic scenarios predict a dramatic decrease of suitable habitat for <i>D</i>. <i>montanum</i> in the future. Based on these results, we discuss the relevance and feasibility of different conservation measures.