National energy system optimization modelling for decarbonization pathways analysis: A systematic literature review

Energy planning is fundamental to ensure a sustainable, affordable, and reliable energy mix for the future. Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are the accurate tools to guide decision-making in national energy planning. This article presents a systematic literature review covering the main ESOMs, the input and output data involved, the trends in scenario analysis for decarbonization pathways in national economies, and the challenges associated with energy system optimization modelling. The first part introduces the characterization of ESOMs, showing a trend in modelling focused on long-term, multisector, multiperiod, bottom-up, linear programming, and perfect foresight. Secondly, the analysis shows the intensive data requirements, including future demand profiles, fuel price projections, energy potentials, and techno-economic characteristics of technologies. This review also reveals that decarbonization pathways are the principal objective in energy system optimization modelling, including key drivers such as high-share renewable energy integration, energy efficiency increase, sector coupling, and sustainable transport. The last section presents ten challenges and their corresponding opportunities in research, highlighting the improvement of spatiotemporal resolution, transparency, the inclusion of social aspects, the representation of developing country features, and quality and availability data.