The rise of grasslands is linked to atmospheric CO2 decline in the late Palaeogene

Grasslands are predicted to experience a major biodiversity change by the year 2100. A better understanding of how grasslands have responded to past environmental changes will help predict the outcome of current and future environmental changes. Here, we explore the relationship between past atmospheric CO₂ and temperature fluctuations and the shifts in diversification rate of Poaceae (grasses) and Asteraceae (daisies), two exceptionally species-rich grassland families (~11,000 and ~23,000 species, respectively). To this end, we develop a Bayesian approach that simultaneously estimates diversification rates through time from time-calibrated phylogenies and correlations between environmental variables and diversification rates. Additionally, we present a statistical approach that incorporates the information of the distribution of missing species in the phylogeny. We find strong evidence supporting a simultaneous increase in diversification rates for grasses and daisies after the most significant reduction of atmospheric CO₂ in the Cenozoic (~34 Mya). The fluctuations of paleo-temperatures, however, appear not to have had a significant relationship with the diversification of these grassland families. Overall, our results shed new light on our understanding of the origin of grasslands in the context of past environmental changes.