Risk Analysis in the Determination of the Best Exploitation Strategy Using a Calibrated Reservoir-Simulation Model

Risk Analysis in the Determination of the Best Exploitation Strategy Using a Calibrated Reservoir-Simulation Model Wences Jose Acosta; Wences Jose Acosta YPERGAS Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Tomas Mata Tomas Mata Production Teams, Inc. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Paper presented at the SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 2005. Paper Number: SPE-94804-MS https://doi.org/10.2118/94804-MS Published: June 20 2005 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Twitter LinkedIn Get Permissions Search Site Citation Acosta, Wences Jose, and Tomas Mata. "Risk Analysis in the Determination of the Best Exploitation Strategy Using a Calibrated Reservoir-Simulation Model." Paper presented at the SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 2005. doi: https://doi.org/10.2118/94804-MS Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex Search Dropdown Menu nav search search input Search input auto suggest search filter All ContentAll ProceedingsSociety of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)SPE Latin America and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference Search Advanced Search ABSTRACTThis paper introduces a new perspective in reservoir exploitation strategy using risk analysis. In a recent paper[1], Acosta introduced an integrated systematic approach to determine the best exploitation strategy from a calibrated deterministic reservoir simulation model. The methodology presented in this work is a step forward, since the deterministic methodology is now combined with stochastic reservoir modeling and economic risk analysis, to improve the decision making process under uncertainty.A few calibrated reservoir simulation models generated from reservoir characterization techniques, using probabilistic modeling, are used to represent less likely, most probable and optimistic scenarios. Acosta's technique[1, 2] is then applied along with an economic evaluation risk analysis program, to determine the optimum exploitation scheme for each scenario.This new workflow allows the determination of the optimum number of additional wells, their grid locations, as well of assisting to define the most appropriate enhanced recovery process. Key portfolio planning input, such maximum gross rates, production and injection infrastructure requirements, Capex and Opex profiles, are the results from this integrated technical and economical optimization approach.Reservoir management and strategic decision making process are improved, since both technical and economical risk analyses are considered. The most valuable plan is obtained for all options, along with their overall related uncertainties. Managers, therefore, can select the best alternative for field development, together with an assessment of the key parameters and knowledge to be determined, in order to reduce the project risk.INTRODUCTIONWhile performing an integrated reservoir study, some statistics[5, 6, 7, 8, 9] have shown that more than 93% of the time is spent in defining reservoir description and performing calibration of the simulation model. Barely, less than 7% of that total time is used for forecasting purposes. Until recent years, there was a lack of a well structured procedure to rule this final part of the reservoir study analysis. This meant that, although several cases were usually submitted, many of them were not even defined. Therefore, an optimum exploitation plan was rarely obtained.Acosta[1, 2] developed a procedure that has demonstrated to be a powerful tool in the process of designing the optimum reservoir exploitation strategy. Application of this methodology has also resulted in a significant reduction in both uncertainties and the number of forecasts needed to define such plan; however in some cases additional time may be required to complete the entire forecasting phase.Others have tried to develop a similar method. Cullik et al[3], presented an optimization approach that tries to cover the process, but it does not considered reservoir properties variation at full extent nor present a well selection and optimization criteria based on well interference and reservoir heterogeneity.The improved method suggested in this paper is considered easier and faster to implement.As of today, the original methodology has already been applied to more than 20 integrated reservoir studies carried out in western and eastern Venezuela with tremendous success in defining the best exploitation strategy. Keywords: best exploitation strategy, original methodology, optimum number, npv, upstream oil & gas, acosta, recovery process, spe 94804, determination, calibration Subjects: Improved and Enhanced Recovery, Reservoir Simulation, Evaluation of uncertainties This content is only available via PDF. 2005. Society of Petroleum Engineers You can access this article if you purchase or spend a download.