Weather Conditions and Messaging Associated with Fatal Winter-Weather-Related Motor-Vehicle Crashes

Abstract Winter-weather conditions pose an extreme hazard to motorists, resulting in approximately 1000 fatalities annually on U.S. roadways. Minimizing adverse impacts of winter weather requires (i) the identification of hazardous weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes, and (ii) effective, targeted messaging of those hazards to motorists. The first objective is addressed by matching motor-vehicle-related fatalities from 2008 to 2019 to nearby weather reports to determine how precipitation types and other observable weather conditions (i.e., precipitation intensity, obscurations, and visibility) change leading up to crashes. One-half of fatalities occur in snow, with 75% occurring in ongoing snowfall. Of fatalities during freezing precipitation, 41% occur near the onset of freezing precipitation. In addition, 42% of fatalities have deteriorating weather conditions prior to the crash, primarily visibility reductions of ≥25%. The second objective is addressed by examining language currently used in National Weather Service Winter Weather Warning, Watch, or Advisory (WSW) issuances for fatal crashes. Only one-third of fatalities have a WSW. These WSWs both identify a road hazard (e.g., “roads will become slick”) and provide an action item for motorists (e.g., “slow down and use caution while driving”) but do not clearly convey tiered road-hazard ratings. Examination of non-weather-related attributes of fatal crashes suggest that variable-message signs along highways may be useful to communicate road hazards, and that future messaging should urge motorists to leave additional space around their vehicles, slow down, prepare for rapidly deteriorating conditions, and teach strategies to regain control of their vehicle. Significance Statement We find that approximately 1000 fatalities occur each year on U.S. roadways during winter weather. To inform how to reduce fatalities in the future, we identify weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes and determine whether road hazards were publicly messaged alongside weather warnings and advisories. Ongoing snowfall, the onset of freezing precipitation, and visibility reductions were prominent factors found in many fatal crashes, suggesting that these may be important factors to address in future safety studies. Winter-weather warnings and advisories often contain language cautioning road hazards, yet only one-third of fatalities occur during conditions with such official statements. However, these statements do not clearly indicate how hazardous roads will be.