A Water Resource Equilibrium Regulation Model Under Water Resource Utilization Conflict: A Case Study in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract The mismatch between the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of water resources and recent regional socioeconomic development threatens social stability and sustainable development, particularly in river basins affected by water scarcity. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt a water resource regulation model to address these new challenges. Based on the theory of Maslow's hierarchy of needs and the Gini coefficient, in this study, a water resource equilibrium regulation model is constructed from the demand side and applied to the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Different from fairness, equilibrium is a stable state under the influence of diversity of interests and other factors. The results show that the model realizes the spatial and temporal equilibrium regulation of water resources. The water supply assurance rates of ecological and agricultural water users increase significantly to 94.1% and 74.3%, respectively. In particular, in dry years, the rigid demands of water users can be well met, and irreversible losses can be avoided. Compared with Scheme 1987, the proportion of water supply for upstream provinces increases to 42.34%, which will contribute to the balanced development of the basin. This model has the potential to be used in a wide range of applications, providing not only theoretical and technical support for the adjustment of Scheme 1987 in the YRB but also a reference for other governments and water resource management institutions around the world.