Modeling pain perception within a Bayesian framework – a novel computational approach to quantify predictive pain processing using quantitative sensory testing

Abstract Pain perception can be studied as an inferential process in which prior information influences the perception of nociceptive input. To date, there are no suitable psychophysical paradigms to measure this at an individual level. We developed a quantitative sensory testing paradigm allowing for quantification of the influence of prior expectations versus current nociceptive input during perception. Using a Pavlovian-learning task, we investigated the influence of prior expectations on the belief about the varying strength of association between a painful electrical cutaneous stimulus and a visual cue in healthy subjects (N = 70). The belief in cue-pain associations was examined with computational modelling using a Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF). Prior weighting estimates in the HGF model were compared with the established measures of conditioned pain modulation (CPM) and temporal summation of pain (TSP) assessed by cuff algometry. Subsequent HGF-modelling and estimation of the influence of prior beliefs on perception showed that 70% of subjects had a higher reliance on nociceptive input during perception of acute pain stimuli, whereas 30% showed a stronger weighting of prior expectations over sensory evidence. There was no association between prior weighting estimates and CPM or TSP. The data demonstrates relevant individual differences in prior weighting and suggests an importance of top-down cognitive processes on pain perception. Our new psychophysical testing paradigm provides a method to identify individuals with traits suggesting greater reliance on prior expectations in pain perception, which may be a risk factor for developing chronic pain and may be differentially responsive to learning-based interventions.