Projected impacts of climate change on the habitat of Xerophyta species in Africa

Climate change poses a serious long-term threat to biodiversity. To effectively reduce biodiversity loss, conservationists need to have a thorough understanding of the preferred habitats of species and the variables that affect their distribution. Therefore, predicting the impact of climate change on species-appropriate habitats may help mitigate the potential threats to biodiversity distribution. <i>Xerophyta</i>, a monocotyledonous genus of the family Velloziaceae is native to mainland Africa, Madagascar, and the Arabian Peninsula. The key drivers of <i>Xerophyta</i> habitat distribution and preference are unknown. Using 308 species occurrence data and eight environmental variables, the MaxEnt model was used to determine the potential distribution of six <i>Xerophyta</i> species in Africa under past, current and future climate change scenarios. The results showed that the models had a good predictive ability (Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistics values for all SDMs were more than 0.902), indicating high accuracy in forecasting the potential geographic distribution of <i>Xerophyta</i> species. The main bioclimatic variables that impacted potential distributions of most <i>Xerophyta</i> species were mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18). According to our models, tropical Africa has zones of moderate and high suitability for <i>Xerophyta</i> taxa, which is consistent with the majority of documented species localities. The habitat suitability of the existing range of the <i>Xerophyta</i> species varied based on the climate scenario, with most species experiencing a range loss greater than the range gain regardless of the climate scenario. The projected spatiotemporal patterns of <i>Xerophyta</i> species help guide recommendations for conservation efforts.