Impact of climatic changes on future irrigation water requirement in the Middle East and North Africa's region: a case study of upper Egypt

Abstract Freshwater shortages in the Middle East and North Africa's region (MENA) cause serious issues, while climate change causes even more issues. The current study examines how climate change may impact future irrigation requirements in Egypt's Upper Region using the medium greenhouse emission RCP 4.5 and high emission RCP 8.5 scenarios. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Fifth Assessment Report, the climatic projections for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the years 2023–2080 and 2081–2100 were used to determine the patterns of temperature and rainfall in the upper Egypt territory. The CROPWAT model was employed to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) and net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) for the upper Egypt territory key crops sugar cane, potatoes, berseem clover (alfalfa), dry bean, wheat, cotton, maize, and tomato based on the predicted meteorological conditions. Five different scenarios for the key crops' future irrigation needs were calculated. The results reveal that under RCP 4.5 greenhouse emission for the periods 2023–2080 and 2081–2100, respectively, the overall NIWR for all examined crops increases by 5.1 and 5.9% in comparison to the current (2022) total NIWR for all crops. The total NIWR for all crops analyzed increases by 7.7 and 9.7% under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario for the periods 2023–2080 and 2081–2100, respectively, in contrast to the current total NIWR for all crops. It is important to consider changes in water resource management in the MENA region, such as applying modern irrigation systems, using crop pattern rotation strategies with minimal water demands, and changing crop calendars or the times and locations of cropping activities.