Systematic Forecasting and Meta-Analysis of Learners' Numeracy and Literacy Status in Selected Divisions of Region IV-A CALABARZON, Philippines

To commensurate with the two-year educational lag brought about by COVID-19, DepEd Order 34 of 2022 (5 days in-person classes) and DepEd Order 14 of 2023 (implementation of National Learning Camp) were signed. This study aimed in constructing a projection of the status of numeracy and literacy skills of learners in selected divisions of DepEd Region IV-A CALABARZON Philippines for the next years to come. The data came from six divisions who positively responded to the study proposal. Data gathered was through Google Form distributed to school heads accompanied by informed consent and Division indorsements. Having the data for five consecutive previous years constituted the elements for systematic forecasting. It was found out that school size, curricular classification and OPCRF rating significantly affect Mathematics MPS (p-values 0.001, 0.005 and 0.011). On the other hand, only school size and curricular classification significantly affect English MPS (p-values 0.049 and 0.043). Meanwhile, student related factor and English MPS are significantly correlated with each other (p-value 0.016). As the historical pattern behaves in linear fashion, it was predicted using linear regression that in the year 2028, Mathematics MPS for Key Stage 1 is 82.102, KS2 is 81.952, KS3 is 77.927, and KS4 is 72.287. While for English, it was predicted that in the year 2028, KS1 will have MPS of 81.357, KS2 is 81.481, KS3 is 71.347, and KS4 is 81.467. Recommended projects are laid down at the end of the study to alleviate the effect of pandemic to learners numeracy and literacy skills.