The characteristic time scale of cultural evolution

Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a "characteristic" time course for the evolution of social complexity in a handful of different geographic areas. Data from the Seshat: Global History Databank is shifted so that the overlapping time series can be fitted to a single logistic regression model for all 23 geographic areas under consideration. The resulting regression shows convincing out-of-sample predictions, and its period of extensive growth in social complexity can be identified via bootstrapping as a time interval of roughly 2,500 years. To analyze the endogenous growth of social complexity, each time series is restricted to a central time interval without major disruptions in cultural or institutional continuity, and both approaches result in a similar logistic regression curve. Our results suggest that these different areas have indeed experienced a similar course in the their evolution of social complexity, but that this is a lengthy process involving both internal developments and external influences.