Search for a command to run...
Abstract Social, economic, and technological megatrends are giving Japan its best chance at economic recovery in a generation. Just as entrepreneurship created Japan’s postwar economic miracle, it will take a new generation of entrepreneurs (nicknamed gazelles) to propel revival. At present, Japan suffers one of the lowest rates of innovative, high-growth entrepreneurship among rich countries. Fortunately, six socioeconomic megatrends are breaking down the ability of incumbent corporate giants (nicknamed elephants) and their political allies to block new challengers. For example, so-called lifetime employment has traditionally made it very hard for newcomers to recruit needed staff. Banks, often allied with the big incumbents, lend less to new companies. A distribution system dominated by incumbents has made it hard for newcomers to get their products on store shelves. This is being changed by the megatrends. Generational changes in attitudes about work and gender relations are leading more talented people to create new innovative firms and others to work for them. The latter includes ambitious women who are regularly denied promotions at traditional companies. In the form of e-commerce, technology enables tens of thousands of newcomers to bypass the distribution system and reach tens of millions of customers. Three decades of low growth and the consequences of aging have increased political demands for a solution. While progress remains difficult due to resistance by powerful forces, fissures are emerging within the government and business community. Some factions try to promote more startups, while others resist making the needed changes in regulations, taxes, and budgets. The contention among these forces will determine the outcome.