The Secular Dynamical Evolution of Binary Asteroid System (65803) Didymos Post-DART

Abstract The successful impact of NASA’s DART mission with Dimorphos, the secondary body of binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, altered the attitude, shape, and orbit of Dimorphos. In addition to perturbing the immediate short-term dynamics of the system, these changes have major implications for the binary Yarkovsky–O’Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack (BYORP) effect and resulting long-term secular evolution. In this study, we assess the range of possible reshaping-induced changes in BYORP. We produce high-fidelity numerical simulations of the orbit-attitude coupled tidal-BYORP dynamical evolution of the Didymos system to constrain how the secular evolution changed from its preimpact behavior. We find that the nature of the dynamics is highly dependent on a variety of initial conditions and assumptions, and it is difficult to fully predict how the system will secularly evolve following the impact. Rather, we provide a range of feasible possibilities within the bounds of observations and current best estimates of the Didymos system parameters. ESA’s Hera mission will help reduce uncertainties surrounding the postimpact state and shape of Dimorphos in 2027, allowing our predictions of the secular evolutionary effects and long-term fate of the Didymos system to be better refined.