Estimating the replicability of psychology experiments after an initial failure to replicate

When a replication fails, scientists have to decide whether to make a second attempt or move on.Psychology researchers who attempt to replicate studies often face this decision, given the empiricalrate of replication success in psychology, which is lower than desired. Here, we report 17 re-replicationsof experiments for which an original replication had failed. In 5/17 of these “rescue” projects (29%),the “rescue” study mostly or fully replicated the original results, albeit with a smaller effect size;in the other 12, the second replication was also judged to have failed. We speculate that successfulrescue projects were due to larger sample sizes or methodological changes such as attention checks. Inthe absence of obvious weaknesses in a failed replication study’s sample or procedure, however, it maybe most efficient to stop pursuing an effect after a single failed replication.