Development of an assembled model for the projection of climate change in the Endorheic Basin of the Bolivian Altiplano: Evaluation and validation of historical temperature simulations of CMIP6 models

The study evaluated and validated the historical temperature simulations of the CMIP6 models for the Endorheic Basin of the Bolivian Altiplano, using data and products from the Bolivian climate grid called GMET.Global and regional climate models were evaluated, and statistical bias correction techniques were applied to improve the quality of the simulations.The five best performing regional models were selected to generate temperature projections up to 2100, and the REA method was used to assemble (combine) the predictions from different individual models to improve accuracy and reduce uncertainty.Scenerys SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were selected to carry out climate change projections in the basin.The results showed that the seven models evaluated have a good capacity to simulate the temperature in the basin, although there are significant differences in their individual performance.The GFDL, CNRM, MIROC, NorESM and HadGEM models perform best in simulating the historical temperature of the basin.The REA ensemble model shows a significant increase in minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures through 2100 under Scenerys SSP 245 and 585, with steeper projections for the highemissions Scenery (SSP 585).However, there are limitations and differences in the models used, making it necessary to continue research and monitoring to understand and address climate changes in the basin.