Do energy and geopolitical risks influence environmental quality? A quantile-based load capacity factor assessment for fragile countries

Most countries have tried to decline fossil fuels dependency by supporting clean energy transition. In light of this, this study investigates the impact of energy security risk (ESR) and geopolitical risk (GPR) on the load capacity factor (LCF) in four fragile countries (Brazil-BRA; India-IND; South Africa-ZAF, Türkiye-TUR). The study applies quantile approaches for the period between 1985/m2 and 2018/m12, which represents the largest amount of accessible data. The results show that (i) at higher quantiles, ESR declines the LCF in IND and ZAF, while it has an increasing impact in BRA and a mixed impact in TUR; (ii) GPR increases the LCF in BRA, ZAF, and TUR at lower and middle quantiles, while GPR decreases ecological quality at higher quantiles in all countries; (iii) ESR and GPR have a causal effect on the LCF across various quantiles; (iv) ESR and GPR are strong predictors of the LCF, but their predictive power varies by quantile and becomes significantly weaker with increasing lags. With these fresh outcomes, the study underlines the significant influence of ESR and GPR in ensuring ecological sustainability across all quantiles and countries. The overall findings of the study emphasize that risks and uncertainties degrade the ecological quality of four fragile countries and that policymakers should turn to clean energy sources in case of an increase in geopolitical and energy risks.