Increased Value in Reservoir Management Decision under Uncertainty Using Ensemble-based Modelling and Analytics. The Smørbukk Story

Summary The Smørbukk deposit in the Norwegian Sea faces challenges in reservoir management despite operating since 1999. Ensemble-based modelling is proposed to address biases and noise in modelling outcomes, combined with a so-called “noise audit” with separate teams working in parallel to generate ensembles of models capturing and quantifying subsurface uncertainties on the Smørbukk field. Practical challenges arise, however, resulting from use of different reservoir modelling technologies. To overcome this challenge, we utilize a cloud-native analytics platform that allows for integrating ensembles from independent teams for effective comparative analyses. As a result, we obtain key insights into volume discrepancies and localized gas volumes. The study’s findings extend beyond Smørbukk, establishing a benchmark for collaborative decision-making in reservoir modelling, and highlights the importance of a collaborative environment when evaluating outcomes of modelling projects. Ultimately this help increase the value of the asset, promoting informed and efficient reservoir management strategies with technical and financial benefits.