Greenhouse gas mitigation on croplands: clarifying the debate on knowns, unknowns and risks to move forward with effective management interventions

The opportunity of agricultural management practices to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) is recognized as an important strategy for mitigating climate change. However, there is low confidence when it comes to understanding the magnitude of the climate benefit we can expect from SOC sequestration or how best to achieve it. Several issues are often confounded when it comes to the mitigation potential of SOC sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions from agriculture, creating confusion and making it difficult to clearly identify the knowns, unknowns and risks to implementing policy and practice recommendations. Here, we identify and explain four major areas of uncertainty: (1) the expected changes in soil carbon or GHG emissions resulting from agricultural management practice changes; (2) the extent to which social, environmental and economic factors constrain mitigation potential; (3) the ability to execute reliable measurement, monitoring, reporting and verification (MMRV) frameworks; and (4) the perception of risk associated with different ways of promoting practice adoption (e.g., voluntary carbon markets fueled by the private sector, pay-for-practice programs funded by public investment). We aim to pinpoint knowledge gaps and areas of disagreement to help right-size expectations and guide effective investment in GHG removals and reductions from agriculture.