A Transformer Maintenance Interval Optimization Method Considering Imperfect Maintenance and Dynamic Maintenance Costs

As one of the most critical components of the power grid system, transformer maintenance strategy planning significantly influences the safe, economical, and sustainable operation of the power system. Periodic imperfect maintenance strategies have become a research focus in preventive maintenance strategies for large power equipment due to their ease of implementation and better alignment with engineering realities. However, power transformers are characterized by long lifespans, high reliability, and limited defect samples. Existing maintenance methods have not accounted for the dynamic changes in maintenance costs over a transformer’s operational lifetime. Therefore, we propose a maintenance interval optimization method that considers imperfect maintenance and dynamic maintenance costs. Utilizing defect and maintenance cost data from 400 220 KV oil-immersed transformers in northern China, we employed Bayesian estimation for the first time to address the distribution fitting of defect data under small sample conditions. Subsequently, we introduced imperfect maintenance improvement factors to influence the number of defects occurring in each maintenance cycle, resulting in more realistic maintenance cost estimations. Finally, we established an optimization model for transformer maintenance cycles, aiming to minimize maintenance costs throughout the transformer’s entire lifespan while maintaining reliability constraints. Taking a transformer’s strong oil circulation cooling system as an example, our method demonstrates that while meeting the reliability threshold recognized by the power grid company, the system’s maintenance cost can be reduced by 41.443% over the transformer’s entire life cycle. Through parameter analysis of the optimization model, we conclude that as the maintenance cycle increases, the factors dominating maintenance costs shift from corrective maintenance to preventive maintenance.