Decadal hydrological impact assessment of evolving land use and land cover in an Indian river basin: a multi-model approach

ABSTRACT All river basins have ever-evolving land use and land cover (LULC) attributes. The impact of these changes may not be significant on short time scales (i.e., monthly, seasonal, yearly), but over a decadal scale, they can substantially alter the hydrological processes of the basin. This study comprehensively quantifies the impacts of LULC changes over Cauvery basin in India using LULC maps from four decades spanning from 1980 to 2020. Simulations were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with various datasets. To isolate the effects of LULC changes, two sets of SWAT models were developed: A-set models for calibration and validation to establish basin parameters and B-set models to examine LULC change impacts while isolating other factors such as terrain and climate changes. Key findings include a significant increase in urban areas (0.87% in 1985 to 5.54% in 2015), a decline in vegetation cover (25.34% in 1985 to 21.32% in 2015), and an increase in the Curve Number and average annual surface runoff, highlighting the impact of LULC changes on hydrological processes. The A-set models achieved R-squared values of 0.831, 0.728, 0.715, and 0.757, while the B-set models showcased significant changes in hydrological parameters due to LULC changes.