Weather as Fuel—The Wicked Problem of Renewable Energy

Abstract A key component of mitigating climate change is reducing society’s dependence on fossil fuels, which will require replacing them with clean energy sources. The key strategy being pursued in the United States (and most other countries) is to rapidly scale up our use of renewable energy sources. Electricity generation provided by wind turbines and solar photovoltaic panels, in particular, has been growing rapidly, and most energy experts expect them to be the dominant forms of electricity generation in the future. Given the dependence these energy sources have on weather conditions (windiness and cloudiness, respectively), it is useful to view weather as the “fuel” for these renewables in the same way that coal or natural gas serves as the fuel in generating electricity in a fossil-fuel power plant. This paper uses a novel thought experiment to drive home this concept, while also exploring the complexity of providing reliable power on a grid dominated by renewable generation. The paper then shows how the transition to renewable energy falls into the class of problems known as “wicked problems” and discusses approaches that will be needed to make progress. The current status of addressing these complex issues is reviewed through the lens of the wicked problem paradigm. Significance Statement Meeting the international goals established to keep climate change to less than 2°C above preindustrial levels will require a rapid transition away from fossil fuels and toward much more extensive use of renewable energy in the form of wind and solar power. For wind and solar, weather conditions control the generating capacity while also being a major driver of power usage. This additional complexity, in addition to the significant policy issues facing the transition, makes large-scale implementation of renewables fall into the class of “wicked problems” that cannot be solved with straightforward approaches. It is therefore essential that the community view this issue through the framework of wicked problems in order to make progress.