Neutralizing antibody correlate of protection against severe-critical COVID-19 in the ENSEMBLE single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy trial

Assessment of immune correlates of severe COVID-19 has been hampered by the low numbers of severe cases in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) trials. We assess neutralizing and binding antibody levels at 4 weeks post-Ad26.COV2.S vaccination as correlates of risk and of protection against severe-critical COVID-19 through 220 days post-vaccination in the ENSEMBLE trial (NCT04505722), constituting ~4.5 months longer follow-up than our previous correlates analysis and enabling inclusion of 42 severe-critical vaccine-breakthrough cases. Neutralizing antibody titer is a strong inverse correlate of severe-critical COVID-19, with estimated hazard ratio (HR) per 10-fold increase 0.35 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.90). In a multivariable model, HRs are 0.31 (0.11, 0.89) for neutralizing antibody titer and 1.22 (0.49, 3.02) for anti-Spike binding antibody concentration. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 rises with neutralizing antibody titer: 63.1% (95% CI: 40.0%, 77.3%) at unquantifiable [<4.8975 International Units (IU)50/ml], 85.2% (47.2%, 95.3%) at just-quantifiable (5.2 IU50/ml), and 95.1% (81.1%, 96.9%) at 90^th percentile (30.2 IU50/ml). At the same titers, VE against moderate COVID-19 is 32.5% (11.8%, 48.4%), 33.9% (19.1%, 59.3%), and 60.7% (40.4%, 76.4%). Protection against moderate vs. severe disease may require higher antibody levels, and very low antibody levels and/or other immune responses may associate with protection against severe disease.