Unraveling the economic impact of wine counterfeiting: An analysis of the Sassicaia 2015 scandal and its consequences

Abstract This paper examines the economic impact of wine counterfeiting, with a focus on the Sassicaia scandal, publicized in 2020, regarding counterfeit 2015 vintage bottles of the iconic Super Tuscan wine. Wine fraud, documented since ancient Rome, has evolved alongside the industry, with key developments such as the Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée system aiming to curb it. The paper briefly reviews three other significant modern cases of wine counterfeiting: the Hardy Rodenstock “Jefferson bottles” affair, the Brunello di Montalcino scandal, and Rudy Kurniawan’s counterfeit operation. It then shifts to a detailed analysis of the case of Sassicaia. We combine informal analysis using data plots and a formal difference-in-differences analysis to assess the market impact of the 2015 Sassicaia scandal. We find that, surprisingly, the scandal led to an increase in the price of authentic 2015 Sassicaia, perhaps driven by perceived rarity and media attention.